By Labor Day weekend in 2016, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump had already visited Maine three times.

He visited Portland in March just before the statewide Republican caucuses, held a rally in Bangor in June and returned to Portland in August.

Trump eventually made a total of five visits to Maine during the 2016 campaign, and the effort appeared to pay off. The former president won the 2nd Congressional District that year, splitting off one of Maine’s four electoral votes for the first time in history.

This year looks much different. Neither Trump nor his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, has visited the state yet this year, and it remains to be seen if or when they will.

There’s also no indication that the Democratic ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz plans to visit, either.

But it’s early, and Maine could still see visits by candidates or high-level surrogates if the presidential campaigns escalate their fight for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Trump has built strong support in the 2nd District, but its sole electoral college vote could be in play once again now that Harris’ nomination has energized Democrats.

Trump has generally campaigned less than he did in 2016 and 2020, political scientists said, and the contrast with his previous campaigns in Maine is striking.

“There’s no doubt there’s been less focus on Maine from Trump and the Republicans than there was in 2016 and 2020,” said Mark Brewer, a professor and chair of the political science department at the University of Maine.

NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION

A spokesperson for the Trump campaign did not respond to questions about whether Trump or any surrogates will visit Maine this election cycle and why the former president has spent less time here so far this year.

A spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, which is working on Trump’s campaign, said in an email that staff and volunteers are working to engage voters and that “President Trump’s successful record and common sense policies are resonating with Maine voters.”

On the Democratic side, while neither Harris nor Walz has been to Maine since being nominated, their campaign has held numerous events and Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, has visited twice.

Amy Cookson, Maine communications director for the Harris-Walz campaign, could not say for certain whether Harris has ever been to Maine.

The lack of visits by Democratic candidates is not unusual in a state that, overall, is seen as reliably blue. Time and resources are often spent in more competitive areas, and the electoral college vote had consistently been won by Democrats until Trump was able to peel off the northern Maine vote.

President Biden didn’t make any campaign stops here in 2020, though his campaign did send surrogates, including first lady Jill Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts.

Hillary Clinton came much less frequently than Trump in the 2016 election cycle. She visited King Middle School in Portland in September 2015, but relied primarily on surrogates, including her running mate, Tim Kaine, who stopped at the campaign’s Portland headquarters in September 2016, and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont.

Maine’s sprawling 2nd District – the largest congressional district by land mass east of the Mississippi River – has become somewhat of a swing district as rural areas across the country have shifted to Republican support.

“They knew something in 2016, the Trump campaign,” said Dan Shea, a professor of government at Colby College. “They knew it was up for grabs and they spent some time there. And it paid off. I think they did the same thing in 2020.”

While Trump didn’t make as many stops in Maine in 2020 as in 2016, he did appear over the summer at a roundtable discussion with the fishing industry in Bangor and at a coronavirus swab manufacturer in Guilford. He also appeared at an apple orchard in Levant in late October.

Vice President Mike Pence appeared at a Hermon truck stop in October 2020 to rally voters, and Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. stumped for him in Orrington.

Both Shea and Brewer said that, in general, Trump has been traveling less this campaign cycle.

“That could be because, particularly before Biden dropped out, he thought he had this thing wrapped up,” Brewer said. “He thought he was cruising to victory and he wasn’t going to have to work super hard.”

But Harris’ candidacy could change the dynamic, including in Maine.

Trump defeated Clinton by about 10 percentage points in the 2nd District in 2016, and defeated Biden by about 7 percentage points in the 2nd District in 2020.

Statewide, a mid-August poll showed that Harris was leading Trump 55% to 38%, while Harris was up 4 percentage points in the 2nd District, leading Trump 49% to 44%, according to a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Aug. 21. Nearly 1,000 people were polled Aug. 15-19, and the poll had a 3.1% margin of error.

“I’m sure the reason (Trump) hasn’t been here so far is not because they think it’s a foregone conclusion that they’ll win,” Shea said. “If they do think that, they’d be mistaken. In fact, I think the 2nd District will likely be tighter this time in the presidential race than it was in ’16 or ’20.”

He said the campaign has been “frying other fish” by spending time in larger and more competitive states in the Southwest, upper Midwest and Pennsylvania.

James Melcher, a professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington, said the Trump campaign also has been occupied with other business, like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement and setting up the next presidential debate.

Melcher expects more activity soon, and said that many voters don’t really pay attention until after Labor Day anyway.

GOLDEN COMPLICATES 2ND DISTRICT

The Trump campaign doesn’t appear to have sent any surrogates to Maine so far.

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, visited Auburn in early August to open a Republican “battle station” office, though that visit was aimed more at rallying support for state Rep. Austin Theriault, R-Fort Kent, who is looking to unseat Democratic Rep. Jared Golden in the 2nd District, than it was at the presidential race.

Brewer expects that Vance or another Trump surrogate could visit this fall, if not Trump himself, especially as both sides weigh the importance of the 2nd District’s electoral vote.

On the Democratic side, he said a visit from Harris or Walz could be complicated by Golden’s reelection campaign. Golden has distanced himself from the presidential race and refused to endorse Harris as he will likely need to pull support from some Trump voters in order to get reelected.

“My guess is the Golden campaign has probably asked the Democratic presidential campaign to stay away,” Brewer said. “That would reduce the likelihood of Harris coming, when an embattled incumbent member of your party is in a tough reelection fight and essentially doesn’t want you to come.

“You want that person to win, even if they don’t endorse you, because you want that Democratic seat in the House. So you’re going to stay away.”

A spokesperson for Golden’s campaign said they have not had any discussions with the Harris-Walz campaign, either asking them to come to the 2nd District or telling them to stay away.

“Congressman Golden is focused on his race and not the presidential race,” spokesperson Mario Moretto said.

DIFFERENT GROUND GAMES

The Harris-Walz campaign has 17 field offices in Maine, including 10 in the 2nd District, and more than 30 staff in place.

“Our campaign has built a strong team to make sure every voter knows that Vice President Harris and Governor Walz will never stop fighting to lower costs for Maine families and protect our fundamental freedoms,” Cookson, their Maine campaign spokesperson, said in a statement.

A spokesperson for the RNC said they have staff and volunteers in place who have been reaching out to voters, and that the campaign is utilizing the Trump Force 47 program, a joint effort by the campaign and RNC, to engage people around the country. The program focuses on recruiting people to “participate in a neighbor-to-neighbor organizing program that is hyper-focused on mobilizing highly targeted voters in critical precincts,” the RNC spokesperson said.

They did not respond to a follow-up question asking if there are staff on the ground in Maine, and if so, how many.

Brewer said Trump has taken a similar approach in the past by working with the RNC, state and local parties, and affiliated groups to help run his campaigns.

He also said he doesn’t believe the visits generally have a big impact on voters, although there is an ancillary benefit from media coverage and private events like fundraisers that are often held in conjunction.

“They don’t matter much, but they could matter on the margins,” he said. “And when an election is going to be close, the margins matter.”

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