Candidates in one of the most competitive U.S. House races in the country are making sharply diverging closing pitches to voters in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, a contest that could help determine the balance of power in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, the 42-year-old three-term incumbent, is leaning into his identity as a family man and reminding people about his military service while highlighting his support for reproductive freedom and opposition to cutting Social Security and Medicare.

Maine Rep. Austin Theriault, a 30-year-old first-term state lawmaker and former race car driver, is reminding voters online and on the radio that he has the strong backing of former President Donald Trump, who is widely expected to win the 2nd District next week, while also promising to combat high prices and stop illegal immigration.

The candidates’ last-minute efforts to define themselves come after a bruising campaign, fueled by more than $21 million in outside spending, that largely focused on guns, abortion and the high cost of living.

Mark Brewer, chair of the political science department at the University of Maine, Orono, said he’s noticed Theriault playing up his connections to Trump in the final weeks, while Golden is reminding voters about the work he’s done in the district and how he puts the district’s interest ahead of national political parties.

“For the positions they’re in, they’re both making sound choices on how to present their closing case to voters,” Brewer said.

The 2nd District race is one of the most hotly contested races in the country, drawing nearly $30 million in combined spending from the candidates and outside groups, which have spent more than $21 million through Oct. 28.

The winner here and a handful of other toss-up races across the country could determine who controls the House, where Republicans currently have a narrow majority.

Golden is one of five Democrats representing a district that voted for Trump in 2020. Over the summer, House Speaker Michael Johnson identified Golden’s seat as one of the top five pickup opportunities for Republicans this year.

Several national analyses, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, have rated the race a toss-up. The Race to the White House has ranked the race the second most competitive in the country.

Those assessments were backed up by an independent poll released last week by Digital Research of Portland.

Their poll of 604 people surveyed either online or by phone from Sept. 10 to Oct. 7 showed Golden and Theriault tied at 38%, with 21% of respondents saying they were undecided and another 3% declining to say whom they supported. The firm said that undecided voters tend to be younger and not enrolled in a political party. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The poll measured Republican support for Golden at 14%, while 6% of Democrats support Theriault. But Theriault held a clear advantage among unenrolled voters, 28% to 16%.

Although Vice President Kamala Harris had a statewide lead in the presidential race, 48% to 41%, Trump led in the 2nd District, 49% to 40%.

In the closing days, candidates are trying to win over undecided voters and motivate their base of support to go to the polls.

In his final TV ad, Golden, a Leeds native who now lives in Lewiston, features his wife and two daughters talking about his desire to help people and keep people safe and how he joined the U.S. Marines after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. They also talk about his efforts to protect jobs and lower health care costs.

“The things that matter most to your family, matter most to our family, too,” Golden said, while holding his infant daughter.

Brewer said Golden’s final ad is an effective one and seeks to reassure voters that Golden is a steady presence who understands voters and will take care of them like he does his own family.

“I think it’s a smart move on his part,” Brewer said. “Ads featuring your family, particularly kids, tend to be pretty effective. It’s almost a cliche. … I think it’s a good tactic. ”

Theriault, of Fort Kent, is closing by embracing Trump, who has won the district in the last two presidential elections and is favored to win again this year.

“(Theriault’s) closing argument is a tighter embrace of Trump than he was willing to do post-primary,” Brewer said.

Golden has been fighting for the split-ticket voters in the largely conservative district that chose him by 6 percentage points in 2020 – the same year voters chose Trump over President Biden by 7 points.

A summer op-ed by Golden that predicted a Trump victory and downplayed Democrat warnings about the Republican being a threat to Democracy angered many Democrats. His first television ad criticized Biden while highlighting ways that Golden had worked with Republicans and Trump. And Golden has not said publicly whom he will support as president, though he has said he would not vote for Trump or endorse Harris.

A radio ad released by Theriault this week seeks to remove any doubt about whom Trump is supporting. The ad features Trump talking about Golden, who frequently votes against his party leaders and voted against Biden more than any other House Democrat in 2023.

“Jared Golden is a puppet for Nancy Pelosi and the radical left,” Trump says “He’s a disaster for your Second Amendment. He pretends to be a moderate but he’s not, he votes in lockstep with Pelosi almost 100% of the time. We have to get Golden out of there.”

Theriault coasted to a win in the Republican primary this year after getting Trump’s endorsement, as well as Johnson’s. Theriault’s campaign signs prominently touted Trump’s endorsement and he spoke of it regularly in radio appearances, in which he echoed Trump’s rhetoric. In a WVOM Radio interview during the primary race, Theriault cited the need to push back on “far-left progressives, the Marxists, the communists that want to ruin America and who want to change the fabric of America.”

Theriault spoke less of Trump during the general election, portraying himself as a moderate who would “bring balance back to Washington.”

And during a televised debate, he created distance from Trump by saying, “I don’t agree with his rhetoric. I don’t agree with his personality and what he does on Twitter and all that stuff.”

Outside groups, meanwhile, are hammering each candidate in attack ads and neutralizing Golden’s fundraising advantage over Theriault.

Golden has spent more than $6 million during this cycle, compared to $2.6 million from Theriault.

Outside groups have so far spent $2 million more to boost Theriault than to help Golden, primarily through $10.3 million in attack ads against Golden, blaming him for the border crisis and high prices, and criticizing his support for an assault weapons ban after the mass shooting in Lewiston. Another $1.2 million has been spent on ads promoting the Republicans.

Golden has benefited from $9.4 million in outside spending, of which nearly $8.2 million has been spent attacking Theriault, saying that he will support Republican efforts to ban abortion nationwide and cut Social Security and Medicare, which the Republican denies.

Brewer is surprised that no national Republicans with strong connections to Trump have campaigned in Maine for Theriault, especially since his closing argument is so closely tied to Trump.

“I’m a little surprised we haven’t seen some high-profile people on the ground for Austin Theriault,” he said.

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