This appears to be another election where “it’s the economy stupid” was the central theme. It, paired with fears invoked about “runaway immigration,” carried president-elect Trump to victory. But it was not the landslide Trump would have us believe: Popular vote: Trump 49.8% and Harris’ 48.3%; 100 million people did not vote. Trump declared he has a mandate to effect tectonic changes in government programs and services even though more than half of eligible voters do not support them. The impact will, however, be felt by everyone, for better or worse.
Inflation supercharged the debate. Economists suggested that the pandemic and the Russian/Ukrainian war were major drivers. The American Rescue Plan signed by Biden in 2021, also contributed but kept millions from falling off the edge. It facilitated a speedy economic recovery, triggering a surge in demand and a blitz of hiring. But with too many dollars chasing too few goods, prices skyrocketed. Inflation is a worldwide issue, bedeviling countries across the globe.
Many of Trump’s radically conservative proposals will have a direct effect on Maine people. Maine is a border state—not that border—but it shares one with Canada. Trump has threatened retaliatory tariffs unless the border is tightened. Nearly 70% of Maine’s imports come from Canada, including crude oil, gasoline, and propane. It’s easy to see that tariffs on Canadian imports could significantly raise energy prices for Maine consumers.
In fact, let’s look at the whole topic of tariffs and the impact on consumers. Trump believes that countries like China and Mexico will pay the tariff fees. The Tax Foundation, a free-market, libertarian nonprofit research tank begs to differ. Tariffs increase the prices of imported and “protected” American goods, whose prices inevitably rise because foreign competition is blunted. Who pays those elevated prices? The consumer. Which consumers get hurt the most? Those who benefit from the affordability of cheap imports. What is the impact on the economy? Negative. Tariffs will strike every American hard but the richest.
Tax relief will also be experienced by the richest. Extending provisions of the 2017 Trump tax law would provide more tax breaks to the richest 5 percent of Americans than it would provide to the bottom 80% of Americans. In Maine, the top 1% would see their taxes decrease by over $15,000 while those in the middle would see an average decrease of $1,500.
Another leading consumer issue for Americans is healthcare. Increased enrollment in the ever-popular ACA (Obamacare) drove the uninsured rate down to 8%–the lowest in years but Trump and his allies threaten to replace it by deregulating the health insurance market. Sixty thousand Mainers are watching carefully to see if Trump’s wrecking ball will disrupt their affordable coverage.
Medicare may also see sweeping changes, as the Republicans drive more privatization even though such an approach raised the cost of Medicaid by 6% or $27 billion in 2023. Not the result that the Trump budget-cutting machine is looking for. As the oldest state in the Union, Maine has over 350,000 citizens covered by Medicare—a critical bread and butter issue for older Mainers.
Trump also campaigned on lowering food prices: “it will happen fast!” He is now backpedaling stating “it would be very hard to do” while promising Wall Streeters he would prioritize slashing corporate tax rates. His proposed broad-based tariffs and mass deportation of immigrants who are essential in sustaining food production, could also raise food prices by forcing the food industry to increase wages and pass them onto consumers. All this, according to one farmer, “would be devastating to the ag economy.” And to consumers. Proposed deportations would hit Maine’s tourism and agricultural industries hard as available foreign-born seasonal workers would shrink. The American Immigration Council estimated that a mass deportation effort would shrink the country’s gross domestic product between 4.2% and 6.8%. Not unlike the impact of the 2008 recession.
The Trump campaign ignores the historic fact that we are a nation built on the influx of immigrants, often fleeing violence and persecution in their country of origin. Legally, except for members of federally recognized tribes, which account for about 2.6% of the population in Maine, everyone else is of immigrant-origin. Recent data show that immigrants in Maine contribute greatly to the economy: hold 4.2% of jobs; have high education levels; 13,719 own homes; and 3.2% are business owners. In 2019, total taxes paid were $441 million.
Hardliner threats to government programs will have profound effects on Mainers: · Eliminating Head Start: 2,989 children in Maine served by Head Start programs in 2022 could be harmed.
• Abolishing the Department of Education: Currently in Maine, the waiting list for kids needing federally-financed special services is months long. Without a DoE, they may never make it to the front of the line and suffer irreparably.
• Food insecurity is rising nationally but the SNAP program (food stamps) will be on the chopping block affecting 185,000 Mainers. Moreover, imposing “work-for-food” requirements on people of any age who are hungry or ill will jeopardize their health and well-being.
• Changes in Medicaid (such as eligibility levels) are being considered in order to fuel the tax cuts Trump is planning. This is a huge issue for Mainers as 409,000 received coverage in 2023.
A second Trump administration, run by right-wing loyalists focused on resentment, retribution, and retaliation, aims to destroy government as we know it at the expense of millions of Americans who rely on its support and services to live. As Trump “advisor” Elon Musk has, on numerous occasions, made crystal clear, “something’s gotta give”.
How will these changes affect you? What quiet parts of government do you rely on that may be at risk? As departments and programs are hacked away and taxes rescinded, what harm will come to the lower 80%’s benefits by lowering the upper 1%’s taxes?
When the true impact of these changes becomes apparent to the public, will we see voters’ remorse?
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