I didn’t really notice the 2008 recession.

I was a junior in high school and much more concerned with college applications and the school play than what was going on with the markets. Plus, my family had never had much money in the first place; it’s not like we felt a massive standard of living change.

Right now, though, it feels like an economic train crash is coming and every American who isn’t lavishly wealthy is tied to the train tracks. At first the train was coming super fast — 25%
tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports! — but those tariffs have been delayed for a month.

You know what financial markets like? Stability. You know what doesn’t scream “stability” to investors? Starting trade fights with our neighbors. Especially Canada. What has Canada ever done to us? I mean sure, I worked at an Old Orchard Beach storefront for a few summers, but I don’t feel the need to punish the economies of two countries because of cranky French Canadian tourists.

A tariff is a tax on a good that is paid by the consumer … because when in history has a company eaten a cost rather than pass it on? Before the month-long tariff pause kicked in, Irving Oil sent out a letter to its customers announcing that it would add the 10% tax on heating oil immediately — including for customers who had price protection plans. Not everyone can plan for an extra 10% heating oil bill, especially with the zig-zagging and back and forth.

The tariffs are as on-again off-again as a sitcom couple but much less charming. Rep. Jared Golden, my millennial nemesis, made a joke about the Mexican tariffs meaning people couldn’t buy avocados for avocado toast. I wonder if he’ll be laughing if his constituents’ heating oil starts going out in March.

I’m not worried for myself. I’m young enough that I can work more hours or take a second job to make up extra income. Worse comes to worse, the mortgage on my mom’s house is paid off, so I know I will never be homeless. Plus my wife just bought enough dried beans to travel the Oregon Trail.

No, I’m worried for the people I work with. In my day job, I work with Medicare recipients — mostly senior citizens. I hear every day about how much they rely on Social Security, how they’re on fixed incomes where every penny counts. They can’t afford an unexpected 10% hike in a heating oil bill or a 25% jump in price for auto parts. Even the regular, inflation-driven cost of the goods of everyday life (like, I don’t know, food) is going to be a problem. There’s not much more they can cut until they arrive at the bone.

Maine’s biggest trading partner is Canada, but tariffs on Chinese goods will hurt too. Next time you’re out at the store buying something, do me a favor and check out the tag or the stamp where it was made. If it’s a manufactured good being sold at a reasonable price, it’s probably China. There are certainly ways we can improve and expand American manufacturing, but we are simply never going to have China’s capacity, nor will American workers be willing to take on the living standards of the average Chinese factory worker.

Or look at where your food comes from next time you’re in the vegetable aisle. My breakfast oats are labeled “product of USA and Canada.” My preferred snack of Granny Smith apples came from Chile. And my morning coffee may be roasted here in Maine (thanks, Rock City Coffee!) but it wasn’t grown here.

Countries are too deeply connected by trade to withdraw suddenly into our American shell.

Meanwhile, in addition to the looming trade war situation, a team of random unelected citizens, who were neither appointed by the president nor confirmed by the Senate, have gained access to the Treasury payments system. They are part of a team led by billionaire Elon Musk, the richest man in the world. Instead of swimming around in a pool of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck on a private island, he’s rifling through the United States government like he’s looking for change in the couch cushions.

These payment systems sound boring and rarely receive public attention, but they are the computer systems that disburse the Social Security checks and make the tax refunds go out. Several of the young men who have gained access to these payments and data have been reported to be barely out of college. I don’t know about you, but I remember what I was like in my early 20s and I wouldn’t have trusted me with the nation’s Social Security.

Musk claims he’s looking for “fraud.” His gang has been given access to the systems at such a high level, with no oversight, that I find it terrifying — again, not for me, but for people who rely on Social Security payments. What’s to stop him from deciding that all money going to liberal states is suspicious?

Even having the possibility of untrained engineers monkeying around in the system increases the potential for catastrophe. I mean, do you know how many times I’ve accidentally deleted vital files on my computer? A lot. Even more if we’re talking about the cat walking across the keyboard when I made the mistake of letting it go unsupervised.

I don’t know what’s going to happen next. I recommend stocking up on beans and coffee while you can.