State Rep. Austin Theriault, left, and U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, earlier this month. Staff photos by Shawn Patrick Ouellette and Brianna Soukup

Rep. Jared Golden continues to hold a significant fundraising advantage over his Republican challenger in the race for the 2nd Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

But a deluge of outside spending – nearly $16 million through Oct. 18 – is making up that difference, with independent groups spending heavily to attack the Democratic incumbent and help Austin Theriault, a 30-year-old state representative from Fort Kent.

The outside groups have spent $9.4 million to support Theriault and attack Golden, a 42-year-old combat veteran from Lewiston who is seeking his fourth term in office. Independent groups supporting Golden have spent $6.4 million.

The total amount spent by the groups is $2.7 million higher than at this point two years ago, when the final tally topped $21.8 million.

And that’s on top of the money raised by the candidates themselves.

As of Sept. 30, Golden had raised nearly $6.6 million and had $1.6 million remaining. Theriault had raised nearly $2.9 million with nearly $900,000 remaining.

Golden has already surpassed the $6 million he raised two years ago when he ran against former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who raised $3.7 million.

The high levels of fundraising and spending reflect the high stakes in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District race, which could help determine the balance of power in the House, where Republicans currently hold a slim majority.

Golden is one of a handful of incumbent Democrats representing a district that was won by former Republican President Donald Trump, who is once again on the ballot. House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana has said the district is one of the Republican Party’s top pickup opportunities this cycle. And public polling shows a virtual dead heat.

“The ads are fast and furious,” said James Melcher, political science professor at the University of Maine, Farmington. The ads are forcing candidates to respond to the attacks, sometimes in additional ads, he said.

The race is being closely watched nationally as one of a handful of true toss-ups.

Digital Research of Portland released a poll Wednesday showing Golden and Theriault tied at 38%, with 21% of respondents saying they are undecided and another 3% who declined to say whom they support. The firm said that undecided voters tend to be younger voters who are not enrolled in a political party.

The poll, which identified housing, the economy and cost of living as the top issues for Maine voters, shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a 48% to 41% lead statewide over Trump with 5% undecided. Harris had a 23-point advantage in southern Maine, pulling 56% in the 1st Congressional District, while Trump led by 9 percentage points in the 2nd District with 49%.

Maine voters are divided by gender, both in the presidential race and in the 2nd District, according to the poll.

Of the women surveyed, 55% said they support Harris and 36% support Trump. Trump has the support of 45% of men, while Harris had 40%.

In the 2nd District, Golden received support from 48% of women compared to 31% for Theriault. Among men, 28% support Golden and 45% support Theriault.

The rest were undecided.

Golden’s support is strongest among women, people 65 and older, and people with college education, while Theriault is strongest with men, younger voters and voters without college educations, according to the pollster.

Theriault appears to have an advantage with unenrolled voters – 28% of his supporters were unenrolled, compared to 16% of Golden’s. The poll’s margin of error was 4 percentage points.

With the election less than two weeks away, both sides have been battling over issues they expect will motivate their supporters to turn out to vote – gun rights and access to abortion.

RECENT ADS

Recent ads airing statewide attack Golden on gun rights, accusing him of flip-flopping in his support for the Second Amendment and for supporting open borders and welfare for people who are in the country illegally.

Golden used to oppose a ban on assault weapons, but reversed his position after the mass shooting in Lewiston last year. The shooter used an AR-style, semiautomatic weapon to kill 18 people and wound 13 others at two separate locations: a bowling alley and a bar.

The attack ads paint Golden’s change of heart with a broad brush and do not show or mention assault-style weapons. One ad funded by the National Republican Campaign Committee says Golden wants to ban “the most commonly held rifle in the U.S.”

Groups supporting Golden, who has run ads that show him hunting and police officers applauding him for supporting law enforcement, are painting Theriault as a threat to abortion access, as well as a threat to Social Security and Medicare. Theriault has described himself as pro-life and applauded the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to end abortion protections under Roe v. Wade.

Theriault’s campaign has responded directly to those accusations. In one ad, the candidate says, “I’ll stand up to the extremes, oppose those who want to ban abortion nationwide and stop those on the far left who want an open border.” He has also vowed to buck any effort to cut Social Security and Medicare.